US Equity Market Directional Pivot In Progress

Looking ahead to next week, the projections for DIA, SPY, and QQQ suggest a favorable outlook with high probabilities of positive returns, particularly for DIA, which has an 85.7% probability of positive returns over the next 14 to 28 days. Relative to the model’s nominal positive probability of 63%, this is significantly higher than average. SPY and QQQ also have positive expectations, though with slightly lower probabilities of around 64.3% and 69.0%, respectively. As the week progresses the probabilities for SPY and QQQ are expected to increase. Given the current data, we can anticipate a continuation of the market's upward trend, although volatility is likely to persist as traders remain cautious ahead of key economic reports​

Predictive model outputs using data through 8.9.24.

Projected returns with +/- one standard deviation.

Probability of positive returns over various time horizons.