Market Update 10.26.24

This week, we observed an early-week exhaustion pivot that altered our initial forecast from last weekend. Although the final outcomes remained within one standard deviation of our projections, the week’s actual performance diverged from Saturday’s model. In hindsight, a mid-week model update would have better reflected this pivot.

Recently, we’ve noticed a shift in the signal’s pattern, with an increased frequency of entry and exhaustion points, alongside shorter duration windows. This pattern shift brings both advantages and challenges: while it may present more opportunities for high-probability entries, the shorter windows may also reflect reduced market conviction. Trading volumes for major ETFs we track appear slightly lower than in previous months, which could be attributed to traders awaiting more clarity on economic policy with the election approaching.

Looking to next week, the signal currently indicates a potential mid-week pivot toward a high-probability bullish entry for a medium-term position. At the current rate of change, this pivot may occur within a couple of trading days. We may also see some correction in the Nasdaq 100, following patterns observed in other indices.

Once the pivot occurs, I will publish an updated model reflecting the anticipated directional shift. For now, I’ve highlighted the 7-day forecast lines below, as they are the most relevant at this stage.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and my portfolio may not align with your financial goals or risk tolerance. All investments involve risk, including potential principal loss. Historical data and model-based projections do not guarantee future performance. Please consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.