Market Update 8.17.24

Our model for 7-day expected returns proved accurate within half a standard deviation for DIA and SPY. QQQ 7-day forecast was exceeded by 0.7 standard deviations, but within our acceptable tolerance of one standard deviation.

Looking forward to next week, we see an increased likelihood of choppy markets. The probability of a positive return is much lower. In some cases, it is below our nominal positive probability point of 63%. The projected 7-day changes are still positive albeit with standard deviations that reach negative territory. This emphasizes the entry window's importance in positively affecting medium-term portfolio growth.

Model outputs as of market close on 8.16.24

Whisker plot of projected changes and standard deviations.

Bar chart of probability of positive returns.