Market update 9.30.24

Market action this week aligned closely with our model's predictions, which we published on September 21, 2024. DIA ended the week at 422.95, compared to our forecast of 422.4. SPY closed at 571.47, slightly above the predicted 568.36, and QQQ finished at 486.77, just beyond of our projection of 483.41. All these results fell within less than a quarter of a standard deviation, reinforcing our confidence in the accuracy of the model's outputs.

Looking ahead to the coming trading week, the model shows signs of weakness and caution. How the market performs will largely depend on whether it can recover quickly early in the week. If not, there are notable causes for concern. The outputs below reflect these potential risks, and in response, we have significantly de-risked our portfolio to safeguard accumulated gains.