Pivot point incoming! Market update 10.5.24

Our model continues to perform well on the 7-day forecast. DIA closed the week at 423.41, nearly spot on with our predicted value of 421.26. SPY ended at 572.98, compared to a forecast of 568.61, while QQQ finished at 487.32, slightly ahead of the projected 483.88. All three were well within one-eighth of a standard deviation, demonstrating the accuracy of our model.

Looking ahead to next week, we're seeing a potential pivot point in the market. The probability of positive returns is increasing, especially beyond the 14-day outlook. However, our key underlying signal, which drives the model, suggests there may need to be one or two significant down days to align all the components for a strong bullish pivot. As a result, we anticipate some volatility during the week. If this volatility materializes, it will likely be followed by a robust recovery, presenting an ideal opportunity for a pivot point signal.