Market Pivot in Progress 10.12.24

This week’s market performance aligned with our expectations, with a couple of down days that helped generate our entry signal. I noted this signal on Instagram (@RedOakQuant) on October 9th, which marked the beginning of a high-probability entry window. Typically, our windows last several trading days, but this one seems to be closing quickly, and Monday is likely the final day.

Please note that while the maximum return window may have passed, there may still be opportunities for profitable trades. However, the data indicates that the potential for maximum gains has diminished. Based on historical performance models (as detailed in the table below), the data suggests there could be further upward momentum in the market over the coming weeks. Historically, we’ve seen a pattern of several strong days with 1% or greater gains, followed by a period of slower growth until the market reaches exhaustion.

It’s important to recognize that these insights are based on historical trends and models, which do not guarantee future performance. While the data suggests a higher probability of continued market gains, outcomes can always deviate from the expected pattern. Markets can reverse or experience volatility, even after favorable entry signals, although such a reversal does not appear likely in this specific situation.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and my portfolio may not be appropriate for your financial goals or risk tolerance. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Historical data and market models are not indicative of future results. Please consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.